ychen222

http://stockcharts.com/def/servl ... rvlet?obj=ID3400916

"New high without convincing volums is not a bullish signal."

有这么一说吗？

ychen222

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_08/droke121310.html

"A capacity utilization reading below 75% is considered to be deflationary and such readings are typically seen at the depths of recessions. A straight-forward reading of the Kress long-term cycle series suggests that by 2014 we will see a capacity utilization reading below that of last year's multi-decade low reading.

In the interim period between now and late 2011 when the last of the important yearly Kress cycles is scheduled to peak (the 6-year cycle), there is a good chance that the Fed's re-inflation efforts will succeed in temporarily staving off the effects of deflation in the U.S. The year ahead will present perhaps the last opportunity of the post World War II expansionary era for individuals and corporations to shore up their balance sheets, buy gold on any dips or corrections, and prepare for the hard deflationary winter ahead in 2012-2014."

ychen222

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/vermeulen121610.html

"As we all know, when the market is trying to top and roll over it tends to be more of a process than a couple day event. It's this lengthy topping process which has a lot of choppy price action which sucks traders into a position much to early or shakes you out of the position before the market does what you anticipated.

On the flip side, bottoming is more of an event because it tends to happen after a strong wave of panic selling. Fear is the most powerful force in the market (other than the Fed/Manipulators.. but that's another topic). That being said, when you know what to look for in bottoms you can generally see the market starting to bottom and prepare for it.

The charts below of the US Dollar Index and the SPY clearly show the inverse relationship they have. Right now it seems everything is directly connected with the dollar… it has been like that for most if the year… I will note that its not normally this clear. Anyways, the dollar is currently trading at resistance which means there is a good chance it will turn back down. So if the dollar drops, then it should boost the SPY (equities market) and put in a bottom for stocks."

TAX Bill对美元不利吗？

ychen222

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/2295958.html

"通胀----该国货物价格相对上涨-----出口减少、进口增加---该国外汇减少----该国汇率下跌。但是，实际情况真的是这样吗?答案是不一定。

大家可以看最近世界的实际情况，很多国家一旦出现通胀，该国汇率立马上涨。

比如：英国今年通胀上升的消息一公布，英镑汇率立即上涨。1978年第二次石油危机以后，美国通胀非常严重，美元贷款利率曾经突破20%。在随后的几年，美元指数不仅没有大幅下跌，反而上涨超过35%。直到1985年通过“广场协议”美国逼迫日本和德国汇率升值，美元才进入大幅下跌通道。
....."

有意思的逻辑和分析。

ychen222

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/ciovacco121910.html

"As we head into the final two trading weeks of the year, the U.S. Dollar Index has completed two of the three steps typically associated with a change in trend: (1) the black trendline was broken, and (2) a higher low has been made. The third step would be to make a higher high via a daily close above 81.19.

In the chart of the dollar above, the Rate of Change indicator (ROC at bottom) has made a few higher lows and higher highs, which leans toward the bullish camp. If we fail to see a close above $81.19, the door would remain open for the bears. One possible bearish development is the fact that ROC has not cleared the zero line again."

ychen222

更新19#里的图。
有人说现在跟4月的顶部很象，我反正没看出来。

ychen222

http://www.yayabay.com/forum/vie ... &extra=page%3D1

从总统周期来看，大小布什都是选举时候倒霉，当然小布什是最后谢幕。
小股现在是好，不知是否这次结束得也早，反正最晚明年4月吧。

ychen222

http://ciovaccocapital.com/wordp ... uantitative-easing/

"In the last seven weeks, the S&P 500 has cleared and retested important levels in the form of the 190, 210, and 275-week moving averages (shown in blue, red, and green below). The longer the market can hold above these levels, the more meaningful it becomes from a bullish perspective. "

"The S&P 500 closed on December 10th at 1,240.40 which is very close to three potential forms of resistance shown below. Given the bigger picture, we would expect any pause or correction near 1,240 to be within the context of an ongoing bull market."

ychen222

更新一下29#的帖子，美元81.19象是过不去了。

ychen222

http://www.hutong9.net/viewthrea ... &extra=page%3D1

中国企业还是不错的，真的压缩房地产泡沫倒的确可能有利实业，对应就是股市繁荣。
当然中国股票可能有很多没有自由流通，所以有意外也正常。

ychen222

http://pop.6park.com/finance/messages/49688.html

谢的意思是美元基本面上应该贬值，但欧元区某些国家的债务危机使得美元暂时稳定。
若以后欧元区债务危机解除，美国新产业又没有起色，美元会有危机，会有大通涨。

ychen222

http://pop.6park.com/finance/messages/50435.html

美国企业增贷是实体经济复苏的好消息。

ychen222

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/jones122910.html

此人认为股市要回调，而油价要涨。

ychen222

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_08/chapmand123010.html

"If there were something for US stock markets to cheer about in 2010, it was that the second year of the four-year presidential cycle is usually a positive year. That proved to be the case once again. And if the presidential cycle holds true for 2011, then 2011 may be even better, as the third year of the cycle is usually the best of the four. In fact there hasn't been a losing year in what is the pre-election year since 1939, when Franklin Roosevelt was President."

ychen222

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/radomski123110.html

"With the RSI close to 70, that is, near the overbought area, it is likely that a consolidation will be seen rather sooner than later. Verification of the previous breakout is therefore quite likely. This would be a decline to the level of the previous high followed by an additional rally."

“the level of the previous high”是122X。