Diver

开贴。。。。。
cellphone 发表于 2012-8-28 09:21

    多谢！

辛苦老大你了。

Diver

ZT from Pro：

The Waiting Game

US stocks were relatively breakeven on Monday as investors await some catalyst to determine the next leg for the market. So even though the Dallas Fed Mfg Survey was much better than expected, it is not strong enough ammo to launch stocks to new heights.

So what will it take?

The next 3 days should provide ample insight into the state of the economy with GDP, Personal Income & Outlays, Consumer Confidence and Beige Book carrying the load.

If these reports are strongly positive, then stocks breakout higher.

If they are very weak, then stocks head lower.

And if they are neutral, then we keep flirting with the highs until investors have more convincing evidence.

I suspect neutral to positive will be the outcome 。。。

Diver

US equity futures suggest major indices slightly biased toward upside moves this morning, despite mixed European and Asian market action. A strongly bid sale of Madrid’s short-term T-bills fueled gains in the euro, despite ongoing contention within eurozone policymakers’ ranks, mixed media reports, and news that ECB President Draghi will absent himself from the upcoming Jackson Hole retreat where he was expected to make a key speech on Saturday. Japan’s government lowered economic assumptions for the first time this year, reigniting global growth worries, and Fed members continue to air their debates on the need and wisdom of further monetary easing measures. However, Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) patent ruling victory in US courts continued to tickle investors’ fancies, sending offshoots throughout the technology sector as analysts sought out the resultant winners and losers of the decision.

Diver

Asian markets closed mixed today, with China’s Shanghai Composite recovering from yesterday’s 1.7% plunge to a 3 ½-year low. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained a modest 0.1%. However, Japan’s Nikkei sank 0.6% after the government lowered its economic outlook, reducing forecasts on personal consumption, home building, industrial production as well as imports and exports. The government noted “some weak movements,” especially in key export goods as slowing US and China demand combined with Europe’s debt crisis. South Korea’s Kospi dropped 0.1%, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added 0.4%.

Diver

Most European markets traded lower today, as mixed messages regarding ECB bond-buying plans continued to circulate, most likely the result of policymakers’ divisiveness. ECB member Joerg Asmussed refuted speculation that the ECB plans to buy peripheral nations’ sovereigns at specific levels, asserting instead that the ECB will act in parallel with EU bailout funds, buying only shorter-term debt instruments.

Diver

Madrid’s sale of 3-month T-bills at lower yields of 0.946% compared with 2.434% yields at the last sale and a bid-to-cover of 3.4 times compared to 2.9 times prior, indicating demand strong. The euro rose 0.4% to 1.2552 against the US dollar. Equities, however, showed investors still wary, awaiting Thursday’s sale of E6.5 billion Italian 5- and 10-years, Italy’s first auction of longer-term debt since the “Draghi effect” was put in place in late July.

Diver

European bourses showed major indices mostly lower, although the UK FTSE 100 held even, up 0.02%, after Monday’s bank holiday closing. Germany’s DAX is trading off 0.4%; France’s CAC is down 0.5%; Spain’s IBEX 35 is 0.1% lower. Greece’s AEX is 1.6% lower. Italy’s FTSE MIB is up 0.3%.

Diver

Traders remain riveted by speculation regarding Fed Chairman Bernanke’s Friday speech. Will he or won’t he provide hints of another round of Fed bond-buying measures? On Monday Dallas Fed President Fisher released a paper that implied monetary tightening should be employed no matter the economy, given the greater inherent long-term risks of easing compared to its short-term benefits. Charles Evans took a clear path, asserting the Fed should “take action now” on another round of asset buys.

Diver

Uncertainty over global central banks’ policy intentions is expected to hold US markets in irons this week, as viewpoints are bandied about publicly and behind-the-scene discussions are ongoing. Yesterday the DJIA and S&P500 closed fractionally lower, while a jump in Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) shares following a US patent ruling victory lifted the NASDAQ slightly. The DJIA shed 33 points for a 0.3% slide to 13,125. The S&P500 eased 0.1% to close at 1410. The NASDAQ rose 0.1% for a 3073 finish.

Diver

DJIA component losses were headed by Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HPQ), down another 2.1% yesterday, Alcoa (NYSE:AA), off 1.7%, with 1.1% drops in IBM (NYSE:IBM) and Bank of America (NYSE:IBM). Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO) and United Technologies (NYSE:UTX) rose 0.8% and 0.6%, respectively.

Diver

Six of the S&P500 industry sectors marked losses yesterday: telecommunications (-0.5%), industrials (-0.3%), oil and gas (-0.1%), consumer goods (-0.1%), consumer services (-0.02%), and financials (-0.02%). Basic materials led gainers (+1.0%), followed by utilities (+0.2%), technology (+0.2%), and health care (+0.01%).

Diver

Action among currencies and commodities reflect the inability of traders to agree on upcoming policy moves. The euro has headed higher this morning, sending the US dollar 0.2% lower against a currency basket. The dollar is 0.1% lower against the yen, showing rising risk sentiment, driven by success of Spain’s sale of T-bills. Gold is off 0.6% as its safe-haven appeal becomes less attractive in the current climate; however, copper prices, indicative of global growth worries, are 0.4% lower at $347.00 USD/lb.

Diver

Crude price activity shows prices 0.6% higher, however, at $96.05, reflecting forecasts of a 2 million barrel drawdown in weekly inventories due from the Energy Department tomorrow. Prices fell 0.7% on Monday approaching two-week lows as analysts reduced their expectations on Isaac’s impact on Gulf production. Gasoline prices, however, shot up to four-month highs as a result of Venezuela’s refinery fire.

Diver

Today’s calendar covers the latest on June home prices from the S&P/Case-Shiller index (9:00 AM EDT) and the August’s Conference Board Consumer Confidence post (10:00 AM EDT). Home prices are forecast as showing a rise of 0.3%, slowing from 0.9% prior, which would be the fourth straight monthly increase, as prices continue to rise from their low levels, reflected by the YoY numbers, still in negative columns.

Consumer confidence is forecast at 65.5 for August, down slightly from July’s 65.9.

Diver

indicators attempted to consolidate bases at DJIA 13,000 and S&P500 1400 index support levels surrounded last Friday.